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Here is the latest compilation of primary poll results.  This week's polls shown in bold came from AL, AZ, NH, OK, SC.  Our Campaigns and DC Political Report are the best sources I've found.  The calendar comes from Politics1.

Dean is leading or tied in all the new polls, including in Clark's last holdout of Oklahoma.  He is getting all the press, which makes it hard for everyone else to get any forward momentum.

As we get closer to January 19th, the news coverage will be all Iowa, all the time.  All the candidates competing in Iowa will be shown on the news walking through the snow and shaking people's hands.  It could actually provide some non-Dean coverage and give the rest of the candidates a last-minute boost.  The polling will no doubt be intense.  Zogby will be doing daily tracking polls from January 11th through February 17th, covering in sequence IA, NH, AZ, NM, OK, SC, MI, and WI.

January 13
DC: 11/21-11/23: Dean 45, Sharpton 11, Braun 8, Kucinich 4 (PSR)

January 19
IA: 12/08-12/10: Dean 42 (+11), Gephardt 23 (-3), Kerry 15 (-9), Edwards 10 (-4) (SUSA)
    11/18-12/04: Dean 29, Gephardt 21, Kerry 18, Edwards 5, Kucinich 4, Clark 3, Braun 1, Lieberman 1, Sharpton 1 (PR)
    12/01-12/02: Dean 26 (+5), Gephardt 22 (0), Kerry 9 (0), Clark 4 (-3), Edwards 5 (-2), Kucinich 2 (+1), Lieberman 2 (-3), Braun 1 (+0.5), Sharpton 0.3 (-0.1) (ZI)
    11/02-11/05: Gephardt 27, Dean 20, Kerry 15, Edwards 5, Lieberman 5, Clark 4, Kucinich 3, Braun 1, Sharpton 1 (IP)
    10/??-10/??: Dean 26 (+1), Gephardt 26 (+5), Kerry 15 (-1), Edwards 8 (+2), Clark 3, Lieberman 3 (-9) (R2K)
    10/13-10/15: Dean 24, Gephardt 21, Kerry 21, Edwards 10, Clark 5, Lieberman 5, Kucinich 3, Braun 1, Sharpton 0 (MG)

January 27
NH: 12/15-12/17: Dean 41, Kerry 17, Clark 13, Edwards 6, Lieberman 6, Gephardt 4, Kucinich 1, Braun 0, Sharpton 0 (CM)
    12/15-12/17: Dean 45 (0), Kerry 20 (+7), Clark 8 (-3), Lieberman 6 (+1), Gephardt 3 (-2), Edwards 2 (-1), Kucinich 1 (-1), Braun 0 (0), Sharpton 0 (-1) (ARG)
    12/14-12/16: Dean 45, Kerry 15, Clark 11, Lieberman 11, Edwards 6, Gephardt 4 (SUSA)    
    12/14-12/15: Dean 42 (+5), Kerry 19 (-5), Clark 13 (+5), Edwards 7 (-2), Lieberman 5 (0), Gephardt 3 (-4) (BG)
    12/10-12/15: Dean 46 (+8), Kerry 17 (+1), Clark 10 (+5), Lieberman 7 (+3), Edwards 4 (-1), Gephardt 3 (0), Braun 1 (+1), Kucinich 1 (+1), Sharpton 1 (+1) (UNH)
    12/06-12/08: Dean 41, Kerry 15, Clark 14, Lieberman 9, Edwards 6, Gephardt 4 (RR)
    12/05-12/07: Dean 35 (+10), Kerry 12 (-7), Clark 10 (-1), Lieberman 6 (-2), Edwards 5 (+1), Gephardt 5 (-2), Kucinich 3, Sharpton 2, Braun 1 (SU)
    12/01-12/04: Dean 39 (+6), Kerry 14 (-5), Clark 5 (-2), Edwards 5 (+1), Lieberman 4 (+1), Gephardt 3 (-1), Braun 1 (+1), Kucinich 1 (0), Sharpton 1 (+1) (FPC)
    11/17-12/01: Dean 34, Kerry 20, Clark 8, Lieberman 8, Gephardt 5, Edwards 4, Braun 1, Kucinich 1, Sharpton 1 (PR)
    12/01-12/03: Dean 42 (+2), Kerry 12 (-5), Clark 9 (+3), Lieberman 7 (+4), Edwards 4 (-2), Gephardt 3 (-1), Kucinich 2 (+2), Sharpton 0.5 (+0.5), Braun 0.1 (+0.1) (ZI)
    11/11-11/13: Dean 44, Kerry 23, Edwards 7, Gephardt 6, Lieberman 6, Clark 3, Kucinich 3, Sharpton 1, Braun 0 (MI)
    10/16-10/20: Dean 33, Kerry 18, Clark 14, Lieberman 6, Edwards 5, Gephardt 5 (R2K)

February 3
AZ: 12/20-12/23: Dean 26, Clark 15, Lieberman 9, Gephardt 7, Kerry 6, Edwards 1, Kucinich 1, Braun 0, Sharpton 0 (ARG)
    12/13-12/15: Dean 28, Clark 27, Lieberman 12, Gephardt 10, Kerry 7 (SUSA)
    11/14-12/09: Dean 22, Clark 12, Lieberman 9, Kerry 8, Gephardt 7, Braun 2, Kucinich 1, Edwards 0, Sharpton 0 (NAU)
    10/09-10/16: Dean 19, Clark 14, Kerry 9, Lieberman 9, Gephardt 5, Sharpton 2, Braun 1, Edwards 1, Kucinich 0 (BRC)
DE: 11/??-11/??: Lieberman 19, Dean 15, Gephardt 12, Clark 10, Kerry 8, Sharpton 4, Edwards 3, Braun 0, Kucinich 0 (MD)
MO: 09/08-09/09: Gephardt 36, Dean 22, Kerry 14, Lieberman 10, Edwards 5, Clark 2, Braun 0, Kucinich 0, Sharpton 0 (R2K)
NM: 09/08-09/10: Dean 18, Lieberman 14, Kerry 10, Gephardt 7, Kucinich 3, Edwards 1, Braun 0, Sharpton 0 (AJ)
ND:
OK: 12/20-12/23: Dean 24, Clark 21, Lieberman 9, Gephardt 4, Edwards 3, Kerry 2, Braun 1, Kucinich 1, Sharpton 1 (ARG)
    12/13-12/15: Clark 32, Dean 21, Lieberman 11, Gephardt 8, Edwards 7, Kerry 5 (SUSA)
    12/??-12/??: Lieberman 10, Clark 9, Dean 9, Gephardt 8, Kerry 5, Edwards 3, Sharpton 2, Kucinich 1 (OKP)
    09/22-09/30: Clark 16.5, Dean 12.7, Lieberman 11.6, Edwards 11, Gephardt 10.5, Kerry 3.5 (TW)
SC: 12/17-12/21: Dean 16 (+7), Clark 12 (-3), Sharpton 12 (+3), Edwards 11 (-1), Gephardt 7 (0), Lieberman 7 (-2), Braun 3 (0), Kerry 2 (-1), Kucinich 1 (0) (ARG)
    12/13-12/15: Dean 21, Clark 19, Edwards 15, Sharpton 15, Gephardt 9, Lieberman 5, Braun 3, Kerry 2, Kucinich 1 (SUSA)
    12/02-12/04: Dean 11, Clark 9, Lieberman 9, Edwards 7, Gephardt 7, Sharpton 7, Kerry 4, Braun 3, Kucinich 0.3 (ZI)
    11/18-12/01: Edwards 16, Clark 10, Gephardt 10, Lieberman 9, Sharpton 8, Dean 7, Kerry 3, Braun 2, Kucinich 0 (PR)
    11/20-11/23: Edwards 17, Sharpton 12, Dean 11, Clark 10, Lieberman 9, Gephardt 8, Braun 6, Kerry 5, Kucinich 1 (FG)
    10/02-10/13: Edwards 14, Gephardt 13, Clark 12, Lieberman 11, Dean 10, Sharpton 10, Kerry 8 (DC)
    10??-10/??: Edwards 23, Dean 12, Lieberman 12, Clark 9, Gephardt 7, Sharpton 6, Kerry 5, Braun 4, Kucinich 1 (GSG)

February 7
MI: 10/06-10/09: Dean 21, Clark 15, Gephardt 13, Kerry 13, Lieberman 12, Braun 4, Sharpton 4, Kucinich 2, Edwards 1 (E/M)
WA: 12/??-12/??: Dean, Clark (EP)

February 8
ME: 09/13-09/26: Dean 18, Kerry 18, Clark 14, Gephardt 12, Lieberman 11, Braun 3, Kucinich 1, Edwards 0, Sharpton 0 (CI)

February 10
DC:
TN: 10/20-11/08: Clark 10.6, Lieberman 10.6, Dean 6.3, Edwards 5.9, Gephardt 5.7, Kerry 4.1, Braun 2.3, Sharpton 1.3, Kucinich 0.4 (MTSU)
VA: 12/03-12/05: Dean 21, Lieberman 13, Clark 11, Gephardt 8, Kerry 7, Sharpton 6, Edwards 5, Kucinich 1, Braun 0 (MD)

February 14
NV:

February 17
WI: 12/13-12/16: Dean 33 (+20), Lieberman 12 (-2), Clark 11 (-7), Gephardt 9 (-2), Kerry 6 (-1), Kucinich 3 (+2), Edwards 2 (+1), Braun 1 (-2), Sharpton 0 (0) (WP)
    10/27-11/06: Dean 21, Lieberman 16, Clark 13 (SNC)

February 24
HI:
ID:
UT:

March 2
CA: 09/25-10/01: Clark 17, Dean 14, Lieberman 14, Kerry 9, Gephardt 5, Sharpton 4, Braun 3, Edwards 1, Kucinich 1 (FP)
    09/25-09/27: Clark 19, Dean 15, Lieberman 14, Kerry 8, Gephardt 5, Braun 4, Edwards 4, Kucinich 3, Sharpton 3, Graham 0 (U/C/G)
CT: 11/12-11/18: Lieberman 28 (-5), Dean 23 (+6), Kerry 14 (0), Clark 9 (-5), Gephardt 8 (+3), Braun 3 (+2), Edwards 3 (0), Kucinich 1 (+1), Sharpton 1 (-1) (QU)
GA: 12/15-12/16: Dean 18.8 (+11.4), Gephardt 7.5 (-4.0), Clark 6.5 (-6.6), Sharpton 5.6 (+2.3), Lieberman 5.5 (-3.5), Kerry 2.7 (-2.2), Braun 2.6 (-2.8), Edwards 1.9 (-1.9), Kucinich 0.2 (-0.6) (AJC)
    10/??-10/??: Clark 12, Lieberman 11, Gephardt 10, Dean 9, Sharpton 7, Braun 6, Edwards 3, Kerry 2, Kucinich 0 (SRG)
MD: 10/20-10/26: Dean 23 (-2), Lieberman 20 (-3), Clark 11 (), Gephardt 9 (-1), Edwards 7 (+) Kerry 7 (-4), Sharpton 6 (+1), Braun 2 (?), Kucinich 1 (?) (GA)
MA: 11/19-11/22: Dean 27, Kerry 24, Clark 6 (BG)
    11/19-11/21: Dean 33, Kerry 24, Clark 7, Lieberman 4, Gephardt 3 (BH)
MN:
NY: 11/12-11/15: Dean 21, Clark 10, Gephardt 7, Kerry 7, Lieberman 6, Sharpton 6, Braun 1, Edwards 1, Kucinich 1 (ZI)
    10/29-11/03: Lieberman 17 (+4), Dean 15 (-2), Clark 12 (-6), Kerry 11 (-1), Sharpton 11 (+5), Gephardt 9 (+4) (QU)
    10/08-10/20: Dean 18, Lieberman 16, Clark 14, Gephardt 10, Kerry 9, Sharpton 5, Braun 2, Edwards 2, Kucinich 2 (MI)

OH: 10/16-11/02: Lieberman 18 (-4), Gephardt 14 (0), Kucinich 12 (+3), Dean 9 (0), Kerry 9 (+1), Clark 6 (+3), Sharpton 6 (0), Braun 4 (-2), Edwards 1 (0) (OHP)
RI: 09/13-09/15: Dean 17, Kerry 17, Lieberman 17, Gephardt 7, Braun 3, Sharpton 2, Edwards 1, Kucinich 1 (BU)
VT: 10/28-10/30: Dean 47, Kerry 18, Clark 8, Lieberman 6, Edwards 5, Gephardt 4, Kucinich 3, Sharpton 1, Braun 0 (R2K)

March 9
FL: 12/01-12/03: Dean 16, Clark 15, Lieberman 15, Gephardt 8.5, Kerry 6, Edwards 3, Sharpton 3, Braun 2, Kucinich 0.5 (SA)
    11/17-11/21: Lieberman 21, Dean 17, Clark 14, Gephardt 11, Kerry 6, Sharpton 4, Edwards 3, Braun 1, Kucinich 1 (MD)
LA:
MS:
TX: 11/14-12/06: Dean 16, Clark 14, Lieberman 14 (SH)

March 13
KS:

March 16
IL: 10/15-10/20: Gephardt 13, Clark 11, Dean 10, Braun 9, Kerry 8, Lieberman 8, Sharpton 2, Edwards 1, Kucinich 1 (CT)
    08/02-08/04: Braun 22, Gephardt 16, Lieberman 15, Dean 11, Kerry 8, Edwards 4, Sharpton 3 (SUSA)

March 20
AK:
WY:

April 13
CO:

April 27
PA: 12/11-12/14: Dean 28 (+23), Lieberman 17 (+2), Gephardt 10 (0), Clark 9 (-8), Kerry 7 (-11), Edwards 4 (-3), Braun 3 (0), Sharpton 3 (-1), Kucinich 1 (-1) (QU)
    11/23-12/08: Dean 19, Lieberman 12, Clark 10, Kerry 10, Gephardt 6, Braun 3, Sharpton 3, Kucinich 2, Edwards 0 (MC)
    10/27-11/16: Lieberman 12, Dean 11, Sharpton 10, Gephardt 7, Clark 6, Kerry 6, Braun 2, Edwards 1, Kucinich 0 (KP)

May 4
IN:
NC: 11/10-11/13: Edwards 43 (+6), Dean 25 (+2), Kerry 9 (-8), Gephardt 7 (-1), Clark 6 (n/a), Lieberman 5 (-1), Kucinich 1 (n/a), Sharpton 1 (n/a), Braun 0 (n/a) (R2K)

May 11
NE:
WV:

May 18
AR:
KY:
OR:

June 1
AL: 11/17-12/09: Dean 11, Lieberman 11, Clark 9, Gephardt 9, Sharpton 9, Braun 7, Kerry 4, Edwards 3 (unknown)
    09/29-10/02: Clark 13, Gephardt 11, Lieberman 9, Sharpton 9, Dean 5, Edwards 4 (MR)
SD:

June 8
MT:
NJ: 11/16-11/19: Dean 19, Lieberman 15, Kerry 14, Clark 13, Gephardt 8, Sharpton 7, Braun 6, Edwards 3, Kucinich 1 (R2K)
    11/06-11/10: Dean 16 (+4), Lieberman 16 (-1), Kerry 15 (+1), Clark 11 (-5), Gephardt 9 (-4), Braun 6 (+4), Sharpton 5 (-4), Edwards 2 (-2), Kucinich 0 (0) (QU)

Pollsters:
AJ = Albuquerque Journal
AJC = Atlanta Journal-Constitution
ARG = American Research Group
BG = Boston Globe
BH = Boston Herald
BRC = Behavior Research Group
BU = Brown University
CI = Critical Insights
CM = Concord Monitor
DC = Democracy Corps
E/M = EPIC / MRA
EP = Elway Poll
FG = Feldman Group (D)
FP = Field Poll
FPC = Franklin Pierce College
GA = Gonzales / Arscott Research
GSG = Global Stragegy Group (Edwards)
IP = Iowa Poll
MC = Muhlenberg College
MD = Mason-Dixon
MG = Mellman Group (Kerry)
MI - Marist Institute
MR = Mobile Register
MTSU = Middle Tennessee State University
NAU = Northern Arizona University
OHP = Ohio Poll
OKP = Oklahoma Poll
PR = Pew Research
PSR = Potomac Survey Research
QU = Quinnipiac University
R2K = Research 2000
RR = Rasmussen Reports
SA = Schroth & Associates
SH = Scripps-Howard
SNC = Saint Norbert College
SRG = Shapiro Research Group (D)
SU = Suffolk University
SUSA = Survey USA
TW = Tulsa World
U/C/G = USA Today / CNN / Gallup
WP = WisPolitics.com
ZI = Zogby International

Originally posted to CA Pol Junkie on Sat Dec 27, 2003 at 04:02 AM PST.

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Comment Preferences

  •  Re: State Primary Poll Compendium: 12/27/03 (none)
    Like to point out that most of the States where Dean is not winning are the ones where he has the smallest grassroots.
    •  Re: State Primary Poll Compendium: 12/27/03 (none)
      Actually, I think it's more a function of when the poll was taken.  The states where Dean is not leading or tied (DE, MO, TN, CA, CT, OH, IL, NC) have not been polled in 1-3 months, predating Dean's Gore surge.  I expect Dean would lead current polls in all these states except perhaps NC and MO.  I don't think it's an exaggeration to say Dean's grassroots are strong everywhere.
  •  Re: State Primary Poll Compendium: 12/27/03 (none)
    CA Pol Junkie, thanks for doing all this tedious work for us.  Great job!
  •  Re: State Primary Poll Compendium: 12/27/03 (none)
    The old poll factor is significant.  

    The only state where Edwards leads (NC) was polled in September.  He was 18 points ahead of Dean then.

    The only states where Kerry is in the lead (actually tied for the lead) are RI and ME, both of which were polled in September.

    Clark leads in two states, one of them is California, which was polled in September and where he was ahead by just 3 percentage points over Dean.  The other is Tennessee which had very questionable survey methodology.

    Gephardt leads in two states.  One of those, Missouri, was polled in September, where he lead by 14 points.

    One of the five states where Lieberman leads is Rhode Island, a September polls.

    It is quite likely that most of the states last polled in September have seen a surge in Dean support and slippage in support for other candidates (especially Kerry and Edwards).

    Of the candidates other than Dean that are in the lead in a state poll more recently than September, Lieberman leads in 4, Clark in 1 and Gephardt in 1.  Kerry and Edwards lead in none.

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