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Here is the latest compilation of primary poll results.  The final Iowa polls did a generally poor job of predicting the outcome.  Some showed the right momentum, but missed the magnitude of Kerry and Edwards' peformance.  This week, there are a zillion polls out of NH (I probably missed a couple), plus new polls for CA, NM, and OK. All new polls are shown in bold.  Our Campaigns and DC Political Report are the best sources I've found.  The calendar comes from Politics1.

Kerry got a huge nationwide bounce out of his Iowa victory, Edwards gained as well, and Dean correspondingly crashed in the wake of his Iowa debacle.  Clark remained in a holding pattern.  That pretty much sums it up.

Just as we saw the wild swings in the polls week, they can swing again next week if the momentum changes.  New Hampshire itself is known for being very volatile and unpredictable.  Polls have a very poor record at predicting New Hampshire results, often being wrong by 20 points!  This is the first time in 20 years there isn't a competitive Republican primary, so expect an unusually high number of independents in the Democratic primary.  New Hampshire also has same-day voter registration, so it is very hard to tell who will be voting.  Perhaps the best measure is who will have the momentum on Tuesday.  The latest tracking polls show that Dean has either bottomed out or started rising again after the debate and Diane Sawyer interview.  As a practical matter, about the only thing we know for certain is that, like Iowa, the polls in New Hampshire are almost certain to be wrong one way or another.

January 13
DC: Dean 42.7, Sharpton 34.3, Braun 11.6, Kucinich 8.3
11/21-11/23: Dean 45, Sharpton 11, Braun 8, Kucinich 4 (PSR)

January 19
IA: Kerry 37.7, Edwards 31.9, Dean 18.0, Gephardt 10.5, Kucinich 1.3, Uncommitted 0.5, Clark 0.1, Lieberman 0, Sharpton 0
    01/14-01/16: Kerry 25 (+2), Dean 22 (0), Edwards 21 (+3), Gephardt 18 (-1), Clark 2 (-1), Kucinich 2 (0), Lieberman 1 (0), Sharpton 0.1 (-0.1) (ZI)
    01/13-01/16: Kerry 26, Edwards 23, Dean 22, Gephardt 18, Kucinich 3, Clark 2, Braun 1, Lieberman 1, Sharpton 1 (DMR)
    01/13-01/15: Dean 24 (-5), Edwards 22 (+5), Kerry 21 (0), Gephardt 20 (-2) (SUSA)
    01/12-01/14: Dean 22 (-7), Kerry 21 (+3), Edwards 18 (+10), Gephardt 18 (-7), Kucinich 5 (+3), Clark 2 (-1), Lieberman 1 (-1), Sharpton 0 (R2K)
    01/05-01/08: Dean 30, Gephardt 23, Kerry 18, Edwards 11, Clark 4, Kucinich 3, Lieberman 2, Braun 0, Sharpton 0 (LAT)
    12/??-12/??: Dean 28 (+4), Gephardt 23 (+2), Kerry 21 (0) (MG)
    11/18-12/04: Dean 29, Gephardt 21, Kerry 18, Edwards 5, Kucinich 4, Clark 3, Braun 1, Lieberman 1, Sharpton 1 (PR)
    11/02-11/05: Gephardt 27, Dean 20, Kerry 15, Edwards 5, Lieberman 5, Clark 4, Kucinich 3, Braun 1, Sharpton 1 (IP)

January 27
NH: 01/22-01/23: Kerry 29 (+17), Dean 20 (-12), Clark 14 (-3), Edwards 8 (+1), Lieberman 6 (-5), Kucinich 1 (SU)
    01/21-01/23: Kerry 34 (+16), Clark 19 (-3), Dean 15 (-13), Edwards 13 (+5), Lieberman 6 (0), Kucinich 1 (0), Sharpton 0 (-1) (ARG)
    01/21-01/23: Kerry 31 (+19), Dean 22 (-20), Clark 14 (+5), Edwards 8 (+4), Lieberman 7 (0), Kucinich 2 (0), Sharpton 1 (+0.5) (ZI)
    01/20-01/22: Kerry 34 (+15), Dean 19 (-23), Clark 14 (+1), Edwards 11 (+4), Lieberman 4 (-1), Kucinich 0, Sharpton 0 (BG)
    01/21-01/22: Kerry 34, Dean 19, Clark 14, Edwards 11, Lieberman 4 (BH)
    01/19-01/21: Kerry 30, Dean 25, Clark 18, Edwards 11, Lieberman 8, Kucinich 4, Sharpton 0 (U/C/G)
    01/18-01/20: Dean 29 (-17), Kerry 24 (+7), Clark 18 (+8), Edwards 8 (+4), Lieberman 5 (-2), Kucinich 3 (+2), Sharpton 0 (-1) (UNH)
    01/09-01/11: Dean 35 (-10), Clark 26 (-15), Kerry 13 (-2), Lieberman 9 (-2), Edwards 6 (0), Gephardt 3 (-1) (SUSA)    
    01/05-01/08: Dean 34 (-7), Clark 14 (+1), Kerry 13 (-4), Gephardt 7 (+3), Lieberman 7 (+1), Edwards 4 (-2), Kucinich 2 (+1), Sharpton 1 (+1), Braun 0 (0) (CM)
    12/06-12/08: Dean 41, Kerry 15, Clark 14, Lieberman 9, Edwards 6, Gephardt 4 (RR)
    12/01-12/04: Dean 39 (+6), Kerry 14 (-5), Clark 5 (-2), Edwards 5 (+1), Lieberman 4 (+1), Gephardt 3 (-1), Braun 1 (+1), Kucinich 1 (0), Sharpton 1 (+1) (FPC)
    11/17-12/01: Dean 34, Kerry 20, Clark 8, Lieberman 8, Gephardt 5, Edwards 4, Braun 1, Kucinich 1, Sharpton 1 (PR)
    11/11-11/13: Dean 44, Kerry 23, Edwards 7, Gephardt 6, Lieberman 6, Clark 3, Kucinich 3, Sharpton 1, Braun 0 (MI)
    10/16-10/20: Dean 33, Kerry 18, Clark 14, Lieberman 6, Edwards 5, Gephardt 5 (R2K)

February 3
AZ: 01/06-01/12: Dean 29 (+10), Clark 26 (+12), Lieberman 6 (-3), Gephardt 4 (-1), Kerry 3 (-6), Edwards 3 (+2), Sharpton 2 (0), Braun 1, Kucinich 1 (BRC)
    01/09-01/11: Clark 39 (+12), Dean 32 (+4), Lieberman 8 (-2), Kerry 5 (-2), Gephardt 4 (-6) (SUSA)
    12/26-12/29: Dean 22, Clark 19, Lieberman 7, Edwards 4, Gephardt 4, Kerry 3 (AR)
    12/20-12/23: Dean 26, Clark 15, Lieberman 9, Gephardt 7, Kerry 6, Edwards 1, Kucinich 1, Braun 0, Sharpton 0 (ARG)
    11/14-12/09: Dean 22, Clark 12, Lieberman 9, Kerry 8, Gephardt 7, Braun 2, Kucinich 1, Edwards 0, Sharpton 0 (NAU)
DE: 01/12-01/14: Dean 27, Clark 18, Sharpton 13, Gephardt 11, Lieberman 10, Kerry 7, Edwards 6 (SUSA)
    11/??-11/??: Lieberman 19, Dean 15, Gephardt 12, Clark 10, Kerry 8, Sharpton 4, Edwards 3, Braun 0, Kucinich 0 (MD)
MO: 01/09-01/11: Gephardt 37, Dean 19, Clark 15, Kerry 6, Edwards 5, Lieberman 5 (SUSA)
    09/08-09/09: Gephardt 36, Dean 22, Kerry 14, Lieberman 10, Edwards 5, Clark 2, Braun 0, Kucinich 0, Sharpton 0 (R2K)
NM: 01/12-01/15: Dean 18 (0), Clark 16, Kerry 8 (-2), Lieberman 8 (-6), Gephardt 7 (0), Kucinich 6 (+3), Edwards 4 (+3), Penna 0 (AJ)
ND:
OK: 01/21-01/22: Clark 32 (0), Edwards 23 (+16), Kerry 17 (+12), Dean 10 (-11), Lieberman 8 (-3) (SUSA)
    12/20-12/23: Dean 24, Clark 21, Lieberman 9, Gephardt 4, Edwards 3, Kerry 2, Braun 1, Kucinich 1, Sharpton 1 (ARG)
    12/??-12/??: Lieberman 10, Clark 9, Dean 9, Gephardt 8, Kerry 5, Edwards 3, Sharpton 2, Kucinich 1 (OKP)
    09/22-09/30: Clark 16.5, Dean 12.7, Lieberman 11.6, Edwards 11, Gephardt 10.5, Kerry 3.5 (TW)
SC: 01/11-01/13: Dean 25 (+4), Clark 23 (+4), Edwards 17 (+2), Sharpton 12 (-3), Gephardt 6 (-3), Braun 4 (+1), Lieberman 5 (0), Kerry 2 (0), Kucinich 1 (0) (SUSA)
    12/17-12/21: Dean 16 (+7), Clark 12 (-3), Sharpton 12 (+3), Edwards 11 (-1), Gephardt 7 (0), Lieberman 7 (-2), Braun 3 (0), Kerry 2 (-1), Kucinich 1 (0) (ARG)
    12/02-12/04: Dean 11, Clark 9, Lieberman 9, Edwards 7, Gephardt 7, Sharpton 7, Kerry 4, Braun 3, Kucinich 0.3 (ZI)
    11/18-12/01: Edwards 16, Clark 10, Gephardt 10, Lieberman 9, Sharpton 8, Dean 7, Kerry 3, Braun 2, Kucinich 0 (PR)
    11/20-11/23: Edwards 17, Sharpton 12, Dean 11, Clark 10, Lieberman 9, Gephardt 8, Braun 6, Kerry 5, Kucinich 1 (FG)
    10/02-10/13: Edwards 14, Gephardt 13, Clark 12, Lieberman 11, Dean 10, Sharpton 10, Kerry 8 (DC)
    10??-10/??: Edwards 23, Dean 12, Lieberman 12, Clark 9, Gephardt 7, Sharpton 6, Kerry 5, Braun 4, Kucinich 1 (GSG)

February 7
MI: 10/06-10/09: Dean 21, Clark 15, Gephardt 13, Kerry 13, Lieberman 12, Braun 4, Sharpton 4, Kucinich 2, Edwards 1 (E/M)
WA: 12/??-12/??: Dean, Clark (EP)

February 8
ME: 09/13-09/26: Dean 18, Kerry 18, Clark 14, Gephardt 12, Lieberman 11, Braun 3, Kucinich 1, Edwards 0, Sharpton 0 (CI)

February 10
DC:
TN: 01/05-01/07: Dean 26, Clark 25, Lieberman 9, Gephardt 8, Edwards 7, Kerry 5 (SUSA)
    10/20-11/08: Clark 10.6, Lieberman 10.6, Dean 6.3, Edwards 5.9, Gephardt 5.7, Kerry 4.1, Braun 2.3, Sharpton 1.3, Kucinich 0.4 (MTSU)
VA: 12/03-12/05: Dean 21, Lieberman 13, Clark 11, Gephardt 8, Kerry 7, Sharpton 6, Edwards 5, Kucinich 1, Braun 0 (MD)

February 14
NV:

February 17
WI: 12/13-12/16: Dean 33 (+20), Lieberman 12 (-2), Clark 11 (-7), Gephardt 9 (-2), Kerry 6 (-1), Kucinich 3 (+2), Edwards 2 (+1), Braun 1 (-2), Sharpton 0 (0) (WP)
    10/27-11/06: Dean 21, Lieberman 16, Clark 13 (SNC)

February 24
HI:
ID:
UT:

March 2
CA: 01/20-01/22: Kerry 31, Dean 26, Clark 14, Edwards 12 (SUSA)
    01/05-01/13: Dean 25 (+11), Clark 20 (+3), Lieberman 12 (-2), Kerry 7 (-2), Gephardt 6 (+1), Kucinich 3 (+2), Sharpton 3 (-1), Edwards 3 (+2) (FP)
    01/03-01/11: Dean 31, Clark 14, Lieberman 8, Kerry 6, Gephardt 5 (PPI)
    09/25-09/27: Clark 19, Dean 15, Lieberman 14, Kerry 8, Gephardt 5, Braun 4, Edwards 4, Kucinich 3, Sharpton 3, Graham 0 (U/C/G)
CT: 11/12-11/18: Lieberman 28 (-5), Dean 23 (+6), Kerry 14 (0), Clark 9 (-5), Gephardt 8 (+3), Braun 3 (+2), Edwards 3 (0), Kucinich 1 (+1), Sharpton 1 (-1) (QU)
GA: 12/15-12/16: Dean 18.8 (+11.4), Gephardt 7.5 (-4.0), Clark 6.5 (-6.6), Sharpton 5.6 (+2.3), Lieberman 5.5 (-3.5), Kerry 2.7 (-2.2), Braun 2.6 (-2.8), Edwards 1.9 (-1.9), Kucinich 0.2 (-0.6) (AJC)
    10??-10/??: Clark 12, Lieberman 11, Gephardt 10, Dean 9, Sharpton 7, Braun 6, Edwards 3, Kerry 2, Kucinich 0 (SRG)
MD: 01/02-01/12: Dean 25, Clark 12, Lieberman 10, Gephardt 8, Kerry 6, Braun 3, Edwards 3, Sharpton 3, Kucinich 2 (PSR)
    10/20-10/26: Dean 23 (-2), Lieberman 20 (-3), Clark 11 (), Gephardt 9 (-1), Edwards 7 (+) Kerry 7 (-4), Sharpton 6 (+1), Braun 2 (?), Kucinich 1 (?) (GA)
MA: 11/19-11/22: Dean 27, Kerry 24, Clark 6 (BG)
    11/19-11/21: Dean 33, Kerry 24, Clark 7, Lieberman 4, Gephardt 3 (BH)
MN:
NY: 01/06-01/08: Dean 26 (+8), Lieberman 12 (-4), Clark 10 (-4), Sharpton 8 (+3), Gephardt 6 (-4), Kerry 6 (-3), Braun 2 (0), Edwards 2 (0), Kucinich 2 (0) (MI)
    11/12-11/15: Dean 21, Clark 10, Gephardt 7, Kerry 7, Lieberman 6, Sharpton 6, Braun 1, Edwards 1, Kucinich 1 (ZI)
    10/29-11/03: Lieberman 17 (+4), Dean 15 (-2), Clark 12 (-6), Kerry 11 (-1), Sharpton 11 (+5), Gephardt 9 (+4) (QU)

OH: 12/31-01/09: Dean 29 (+20), Clark 17 (+11), Gephardt 16 (+2), Kucinich 11 (-1), Lieberman 11 (-7), Kerry 7 (-2), Edwards 5 (+4), Sharpton 0 (-6), Braun 0 (-4) (0) (OHP)
RI: 09/13-09/15: Dean 17, Kerry 17, Lieberman 17, Gephardt 7, Braun 3, Sharpton 2, Edwards 1, Kucinich 1 (BU)
VT: 10/28-10/30: Dean 47, Kerry 18, Clark 8, Lieberman 6, Edwards 5, Gephardt 4, Kucinich 3, Sharpton 1, Braun 0 (R2K)

March 9
FL: 12/01-12/03: Dean 16, Clark 15, Lieberman 15, Gephardt 8.5, Kerry 6, Edwards 3, Sharpton 3, Braun 2, Kucinich 0.5 (SA)
    11/17-11/21: Lieberman 21, Dean 17, Clark 14, Gephardt 11, Kerry 6, Sharpton 4, Edwards 3, Braun 1, Kucinich 1 (MD)
LA:
MS:
TX: 11/14-12/06: Dean 16, Clark 14, Lieberman 14 (SH)

March 13
KS:

March 16
IL: 01/12-01/14: Dean 29 (+18), Gephardt 16 (0), Braun 14 (-8), Clark 13, Kerry 7 (-1), Edwards 6 (+2), Lieberman 5 (-10), Sharpton 4 (+1), Kucinich 1 (SUSA)
    01/06-01/11: Dean 24 (+14), Gephardt 12 (-1), Clark 10 (-1), Braun 9 (0), Kerry 5 (-3), Lieberman 5 (-3), Edwards 2 (+1), Kucinich 1 (0), Sharpton 1 (-1) (CT)

March 20
AK:
WY:

April 13
CO:

April 27
PA: 12/11-12/14: Dean 28 (+23), Lieberman 17 (+2), Gephardt 10 (0), Clark 9 (-8), Kerry 7 (-11), Edwards 4 (-3), Braun 3 (0), Sharpton 3 (-1), Kucinich 1 (-1) (QU)
    11/23-12/08: Dean 19, Lieberman 12, Clark 10, Kerry 10, Gephardt 6, Braun 3, Sharpton 3, Kucinich 2, Edwards 0 (MC)
    10/27-11/16: Lieberman 12, Dean 11, Sharpton 10, Gephardt 7, Clark 6, Kerry 6, Braun 2, Edwards 1, Kucinich 0 (KP)

May 4
IN:
NC: 01/05-01/08: Edwards 40 (-3), Dean 26 (+1), Clark 7 (+1), Kerry 6 (-3), Gephardt 5 (-2), Lieberman 3 (-2), Kucinich 1 (0), Sharpton 1 (0), Braun 0 (0) (R2K)

May 11
NE:
WV:

May 18
AR:
KY:
OR:

June 1
AL: 11/17-12/09: Dean 11, Lieberman 11, Clark 9, Gephardt 9, Sharpton 9, Braun 7, Kerry 4, Edwards 3 (unknown)
    09/29-10/02: Clark 13, Gephardt 11, Lieberman 9, Sharpton 9, Dean 5, Edwards 4 (MR)
SD:

June 8
MT:
NJ: 11/16-11/19: Dean 19, Lieberman 15, Kerry 14, Clark 13, Gephardt 8, Sharpton 7, Braun 6, Edwards 3, Kucinich 1 (R2K)
    11/06-11/10: Dean 16 (+4), Lieberman 16 (-1), Kerry 15 (+1), Clark 11 (-5), Gephardt 9 (-4), Braun 6 (+4), Sharpton 5 (-4), Edwards 2 (-2), Kucinich 0 (0) (QU)

Pollsters:
AJ = Albuquerque Journal
AJC = Atlanta Journal-Constitution
AR = Arizona Republic
ARG = American Research Group
BG = Boston Globe
BH = Boston Herald
BRC = Behavior Research Group
BU = Brown University
CI = Critical Insights
CM = Concord Monitor
DC = Democracy Corps
DMR = Des Moines Register
E/M = EPIC / MRA
EP = Elway Poll
FG = Feldman Group (D)
FP = Field Poll
FPC = Franklin Pierce College
GA = Gonzales / Arscott Research
GSG = Global Stragegy Group (Edwards)
IP = Iowa Poll
LAT = Los Angeles Times
MC = Muhlenberg College
MD = Mason-Dixon
MG = Mellman Group (Kerry)
MI - Marist Institute
MR = Mobile Register
MTSU = Middle Tennessee State University
NAU = Northern Arizona University
OHP = Ohio Poll
OKP = Oklahoma Poll
PPI = Public Policy Institute
PR = Pew Research
PSR = Potomac Survey Research
QU = Quinnipiac University
R2K = Research 2000
RR = Rasmussen Reports
SA = Schroth & Associates
SH = Scripps-Howard
SNC = Saint Norbert College
SRG = Shapiro Research Group (D)
SU = Suffolk University
SUSA = Survey USA
TW = Tulsa World
U/C/G = USA Today / CNN / Gallup
WP = WisPolitics.com
ZI = Zogby International

Originally posted to CA Pol Junkie on Sat Jan 24, 2004 at 01:12 PM PST.

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Comment Preferences

  •  Just (none)
    Just a friendly suggestion.  The poll compendium diaries might be more readable if once a state votes you remove the polls from that state (like Iowa, and soon New Hampshire).  In their place, you could insert a link to the final poll compendium before that state voted.

    Excellent job though!

  •  LA Times (none)
    The one New Hampshire poll you seem to have missed is LA Times but maybe I am just not seeing it.
  •  MI Poll You're Missing (none)
    Here's a more recent MI poll (pretty inoperative, bc it's pre-IA). Plus the MOE is huge.

    But it shows among likely Democratic voters:

    Dean 32
    Gep 16
    Kerry 7
    Lieberman 6
    Sharpton 5
    Clark 5

    MOE 8

    MI is one state Kerry should be able to cobble together a good foundation for quickly--the governor's husband is one of his big backers. ANd one of Gep's unions has already endorsed Edwards.

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