Stupid Excel Tricks: Tsunami Tuesday Delegate Count

Inspired by this incredibly detailed diary by crazymoloch, I broke out polling data from pollster.com, Real Clear Politics, and OurCampaigns to try some Excel tricks of my own to determine the delegate count next Tuesday.

My methodology is pretty simple.  I take the most recent poll for each state and normalize it to 100% for Clinton, Obama, and Edwards.  Then I adjust it to the present date by the amount a 5-poll average of the national polls has changed between the date of the state poll and now.  The last step is to impose a 15% viability on Edwards by scaling his delegate share from 0 at 7.5% to full share at 22.5%.  Although many states don't have explicit viability thresholds, my understanding is that they apply anyway for district based allocation of delegates.

So this is what I come up with for each state's delegates:

State Clinton Obama Edwards
AL 27 18 7
AK 7 5 1
AZ 26 22 8
AR 24 9 2
CA 205 165 0
CO 22 24 9
CT 23 24 1
DE 9 6 0
GA 37 44 6
ID 7 9 2
IL 40 95 17
KS 12 11 9
MA 48 42 3
MN 39 25 8
MO 32 18 21
NJ 63 42 2
NM 12 8 6
NY 131 96 5
ND 7 5 1
OK 18 8 11
TN 34 26 8
UT 11 11 1
TOTAL 833 712 127

By this methodology, Obama only will win 5 states (CO, CT, GA, ID, IL) but still do respectably with the delegates.  The lack of recent polls in some states probably understates Obama support.  Marc Ambinder combines polls and information from campaigns and indicates that Obama should also be favored in AL, KS, MN, and ND.  This projection will change as we get closer to Tuesday, find out where Edwards voters go and as more polls come in, but for now it's Clinton getting 50% of the delegates on Tuesday.