Today's poll round-up from 411mania.com shows Florida a mixed bag of polls with:

-- In Florida, Strategic Vision has McCain ahead of Obama 49% to 41%. We now have a situation where since the primaries ended, Strategic Vision and Rasmussen have shown McCain leading in the state while Public Policy, Quinnipac, and ARG have shown Obama leading in the state.

Obama is up big in CT and MA and Barr's polling 3% in Georgia, with McCain up 8. If as per CNN analysis, third party candidates lose half their support by November, that cuts Barr down to 1.5% in November.

A SurveyUSA poll released today that showed Illinois Barack Obama leads Arizona Senator John McCain 49-46 in a head to head matchup.

Polling from May in parantheses

Obama (D): 49% (44)
McCain (R): 46% (44)

McCain still has a strong lead among Republicans, 85 percent to 12 percent.  Obama leads among Democrats 77 percent to 18 percent and among Independents 55 percent to 39 percent.  I'm not sure how much movement there can be between these numbers; Obama might be able to eat into McCain's GOP base a point or two, same with McCain, but it seems they are at their ceiling among their own party in our state.

Obama leads in Bernalillo County 54 percent to 42 percent, while McCain leads in the rest of the state 49 percent to 46 percent.  Nearly all of the First Congressional District lays within the borders of Bernalillo County; whether Obama can help Martin Heinrich depends on whether they can stop "vote splitters" like those who voted for John Kerry and Heather Wilson in 2006.  

Crossposted at New Mexico FBIHOP.

Well so much for my adoration of SurveyUSA in their new poll they claim McCain leads Obama among African-Americans 55-45 in Iowa.

McCain-Bloomberg beats Obama-Webb 57-32

and

McCain-Bloomberg beats Obama- McCaskill 57-27

McCain-Bloomberg beats Obama-Schweitzer 55-25

McCain- Jindal beats Obama- Webb 55-29

and on and on.

I'm guessing next time that SurveyUSA will oversample African-Americans to get a better picture of actual support for Obama [sarcasm]unless there is something currently in the news that I haven't heard about.[/sarcasm]

SurveyUSA. 6/13-16. Likely voters. MoE 4.3% (5/16-18 results)

The internals:

The Pollster.com composite score is Obama 49, McCain 42.6. I currently consider any state within single digits as a "swing state", but this thing is trending away from McCain.

I am in the throes of full-fledged addiction to poll watching. I have been binging on realclearpolitics.com for the past few months now, to the point I'm beginning to think its unhealthy. But what I'm actually concerned about, as a devoted Obama supporter, is that the polls I'm seeing are not very encouraging.

There's been several diaries today on the latest SurveyUSA poll of Ohio showing Obama beating McCain by 9 points, 48%-39%.  I caution you guys from getting too excited, to first take a look at the cross-tabs in the poll.

It assumes 52% of the voters will be Democrats, only 28% will be Republicans, and only 18% will be Independents.

Is this realistic?

The 2004 Ohio exit poll shows that the electorate was 40% Republican, only 35% Democratic, and 25% Independent.  This is a far cry from the 52% Democrats this month's poll shows.

Update: Some people asked about the 2006 numbers, given how much Ohio changed that year.  Well, from the 2006 exit poll, the electorate that wiped out Blackwell and DeWine was only 40% Democrat, 37% Republican, and 23% Independent.  That's an 8-point swing in our favor from 2004, but still nowhere near 52% Democratic turnout.

It's pretty incredible, McCain These SurveyUSA polls are incredibly interesting.  hasn't lead in a single one of them.  Obama is up 8 over McCain in both California and Pennsylvania, while he's tied for McCain in New Mexico, a neighboring state to Arizona.  He's got Washington state locked up with a 12 point spread.  Obama's also winning by 7 in the battle-ground commonwealth of Virginia.  Follow me for further analysis.

SurveyUSA polled voters in Pennsylvania and New Mexico, and asked them about potential ticket matchups.

Just a quick polling update here from SurveyUSA and Rasmussen - also a few points from ARG (for what they're worth) in North Carolina and Gallup.  Essentially, Obama is holding steady or improving by virtually any measure. No recent poll nationally, or in the upcoming states, has him suffering significantly from his 9 point loss in Pennsylvania.  Quick numbers:

As of this moment, about 9:25 PM Eastern Time, there are less than 15% of precincts reporting, a Clinton margin of 6%, and most networks have already called Pennsylvania for Clinton.  But I took a quick look at some critical numbers, and this thing could end up really, really, really close.

This is my final prediction. After analyzing many polls, I come up with the likely composition of the PA primary tomorrow. I entered the likely percentage for each candidate in a spreadsheet provided by Pollster.com and surprisingly Obama can win and will win the state.

PA PA PA.  That is all I hear!  Let's imagine Hillary Clinton does what many will expect, which is win PA by at least a high single-digit margin.  She'll probably stay in.  If not, she'll probably drop out.  I say there is a 60%-40% chance that Clinton will not achieve the high single-digit or double-digit margin.  Yet April 22nd isn't the date that matters, it's May 6th.   North Carolina and Indiana will vote on May 6th.

I'll go through Obama's hidden strength in Indiana and then highlight the ultimate reason for why this will be over by May 7th.

According to WCAU-TV, one of the sponsors of the SurveyUSA PA polls, Clinton is up 14.

No crosstabs yet, but my thoughts below the jump.

Some misguided individuals may write polling diaries on presidential race polls, like the poll showing Obama up 8 in Pennsylvania or down 17 in North Carolina.

But nobody writes about the most crucial issue facing us these days:

How many Americans have been rickroll'd?

SurveyUSA estimates that at least 18 million Americans have now been "Rickrolled," according to this latest national poll of 959 adults, conducted 04/08/08.

Unsurprisingly, the major difference in the crosstabs is by age group.

7% of 18-34 year olds have been rickrolled, while only 3% of those in the John McAncient demographic have been rickroll'd. Moreover, 66% of 18-34 know what rickrolling is, whereas a majority of those 35 and up have no idea.

Survey USA has produced polling for 14 concluded Democratic Primaries.

Below are the results of the last poll they conducted before each primary date.The actual primary results for each state follows the polling number.

This will make it easier to asses the accuracy of Survey USA in wake of their most recent Pennsylvania polling results.

LINK

Considering that every other pollster has the race within 5 points in the past few days, this seems like a major development. Obama himself said last week that he felt like he was still behind 20 in the state, even though polls were saying otherwise. I'm not sure what this means, whether this is just an outlier, whether SUSA is ahead of the curve in terms of predicting a dramatic shift, or whether every other pollster is just plain wrong. Thoughts?

A new SurveyUSA poll coming out today shows Clinton up by 18 points. Doesn't seem to match other polls, but maybe this is going to be another California. I guess a new Rasmussen poll for Pennsylvania is due out today as well, I'll be interested in seeing what that one shows.

It appears that SurveyUSA is going to come out with a new poll soon showing Clinton up by 12, down from a 19 point lead she had a few weeks ago. If you compare this with the Rasmussen poll it makes sense.
When Rasmussen had Obama down by 13, SurveyUSA had him down by 19. So, each poll shows him gaining 6-8 points.
It's not on the SurveyUSA website yet, but I found a link to the story from their site that was put out by a local Philly TV station website.