Musings on Mark Warners' Energy Ideology

Undoubtedly, one of Governor Warner's strength's is that he understands the implicit nature of technological progress and the improvements it can bring to the lives of everyday American citizens. He sums up all that I like about his candidacy and energy platform here in his DNC keynote:

You know, America has never been afraid of the future, and we shouldn't start now. If we choose the right path, every one of these challenges is also an opportunity. Look at energy. If we actually got ourselves off foreign oil, we can make our country safer. We'll start to solve global warming. And with the right policies, within 24 months, we'll be building 100 mile-per-gallon plug-in hybrid vehicles right here - with American technology and with American workers.

(Give a big Kossack shout-out and welcome to James from the Swing State Project, who will be filling in doing House and Senate round-ups while brownsox is reporting from the Democratic Convention. - SusanG)

Hi Kossacks! In case we haven't met, I'm James L. from the Swing State Project, and I'll be subbing in for brownsox, who is at the convention in Denver this week. If you're not familiar with SSP, we're a blog dedicated entirely to news and analysis of downballot races.

Let's do this thing.

NRSC: In the most delicious piece of news in recent days, NRSC Chair John Ensign released a statement roasting his GOP Senate colleagues for failing to financially support his committee's senatorial campaign efforts. After previously vowing to match Chuck Schumer's spending "dollar for dollar", Ensign is being forced to scale back the committee's efforts, including cancelling a $6 million ad buy in support of Elizabeth Dole in North Carolina, and scaling back planned ad buys in Colorado, Oregon and New Hampshire. Without the NRSC's help, Senate Republicans could be in for a world of hurt this November. (H/T: Senate Guru)

CO-Sen: Another excellent pair of polls for Democrat Mark Udall. First, from Suffolk University (8/21-24, likely voters, MoE: ±4.6%):

And from Mason-Dixon (8/13-15, likely voters, MoE: ±4.9%)

And what's the response of Schaffer campaign manager Dick Wadhams?

"That flies in the face of just about every other number I've seen in this race, and I think Mason-Dixon had a bad night," said Schaffer campaign spokesman Dick Wadhams. "This poll is so far off the mark, I can't even respond to it."

I'm not sure what polls Wadhams is looking at, but taking a look at Pollster.com, Udall has never trailed Schaffer so far this summer, and has most often been leading by high single digits. If Wadhams and company want to pretend that everything is hunky dory in the Schaffer campaign, then that's fine by me!

VA-Sen: Another poll, another commanding lead for Mark Warner. Public Policy Polling (8/20-22, likely voters, 7/17-20 in parens, MoE: ±3.0%):

Nothing to see here, folks. Move along.

OR-Sen: After taking some time to replenish his war chest after the primary, Democrat Jeff Merkley is back on the airwaves:

Doesn't Oregon look pretty?

DE-Sen: It's official - Joe Biden will continue his Senate re-election campaign. Assuming the Obama-Biden ticket is victorious, Biden will resign from the Senate after being sworn-in for another term, allowing outgoing Democratic Gov. Ruth Ann Minner to name his replacement. Possibilities to replace him include state Attorney General Beau Biden (Joe's son), and the loser of Delware's gubernatorial primary between Lt. Gov. John Carney and state Treasurer Jack Markell. The younger Biden's senatorial aspirations (assuming he has any) could be complicated by his deployment to Iraq in October.

House Races

KS-02: Via SSP, another good poll for Nancy Boyda in her race against Republican Lynn Jenkins. SurveyUSA (8/19-21, likely voters, MoE: ±4%):

Boyda is on the magic 50% mark. This will still be a tough race, as McCain is beating Obama by a 51-38 margin in the district according to the same poll. However, it should be noted that even that spread is not nearly as bad as the 59-39 drubbing that Bush delivered to John Kerry here four years ago.

As I noted elsewhere, perhaps the most interesting nuggets of information from this poll are its questions related to the energy crisis. Given the GOP's newly-discovered pro-drilling bluster, you would think that increased domestric drilling would be a big hit in this conservative, R+7 district. Not so. When asked if they would vote for a candidate who favors increased offshore drilling, or one that promotes increased development of alternate sources of energy, the pro-offshore drilling candidate loses by a 56-34 margin.

AL-05: A new poll by the Capital Survey Research Center shows Democrat Parker Griffith edging Republican Wayne Parker in the open seat race to replace retiring Democratic Rep. Bud Cramer (8/19-21, likely voters, 4/1 in parens, MoE: ±4.4%):

Wayne Parker's surge is not really surprising. He began the campaign as a virtual unknown, with the memories of his two unsuccessful bids against Cramer in '94 and '96 being extremely distant, but his high-profile primary battle has likely caused his name ID to surge. Still, with more money in the bank, a superior resume, and an early lead in the polls, this is Griffith's race to lose. (Via SSP)

MI-09: Democrat Gary Peters, running against crumb-bum GOP Rep. Joe Knollenberg, is up with a new ad:

Independent Expenditures: Over at Swing State Project, we've started an House Independent Expenditure Tracker, which you can find here. We'll be keeping this page updated daily with district-level updates on expenditures by the DCCC, NRCC, and friends and foes like the Defenders of Wildlife and the Club For Growth.

and Merkley and Franken and Hagan and LaRocco and Musgrove and Noriega and Lunsford and Slattery and Allen and Martin.

(Below the fold.)

So with about three months to go, with Ted Stevens' indictment dominating the Senate news, it's time for another look at all the 2008 Senate races.  There are 35 seats up for election because of a scenario in Wyoming and Mississippi where both seats are up, due to the passing of Craig Thomas and the resignation of Trent Lott, respectively.  Now obviously, quite a few of the races are considered "safe" for the incumbent.  So what are the competitive races?

I'll rank these in terms of tiers.  The top tier will be the races where the party holding the seat has a real shot of switching (but I ain't guaranteeing anything).  The second tier are races that could become top tier races, but are not at this point.  Tier III are ones where a major event would need to happen for the seat to come into play.  And the safe seats?  Well, Mike Gravel has a better shot at winning the presidency than those incumbents have of losing their races.

This is meant to be a primer for both newcomers and political junkies alike, so some of the information may seem repetitive for you junkies out there.  Also see my previous May diary to see what things have changed since my last update.

OK, we knew Republican Senate candidate Jim Gilmore was in serious electoral trouble, given that he trails by 20-30 points in every poll, and has about a tenth of the cash of his Democratic opponent Mark Warner. Now, it seems, he might be facing ethical questions as well.

Turns out Gilmore filed false information on his campaign disclosure forms, obscuring his ties to the Virginia-based company Windmill International. This is serious business, as Windmill International currently embroiled in a federal lawsuit as two of its board members, Douglas Combs and Hansford Johnson, stand accused of attempting to defraud the government.

Combs and Johnson are both heavy donors to Gilmore's political campaigns. Their company even launched the "Gilmore4President" web site, when Gilmore was waging his quixotic quest for the Republican nomination. Yet when a federal suit was filed against Windmill International, Gilmore found a slick method of maneuvering around the trouble; he claimed to have worked for a different company named Windmill International.

From the Washington Post:

On the [campaign disclosure] forms, the first filed in June 2007 for his presidential campaign and the second in May after he joined the U.S. Senate race, Gilmore said he was on the board of Windmill International.

Gilmore, who signed his name attesting that the information on the forms was "complete and correct," reported that Windmill International was based in Nashua, N.H.

But Gilmore was on the board of a Virginia-based company also called Windmill International. The two companies are not affiliated. The Virginia company, headed by Douglas Combs, a former Navy official, is at the center of an ongoing lawsuit alleging that Combs and others tried to secure fraudulent government contracts in Iraq.

The Gilmore campaign claims this was just a "clerical error". This would be easier to believe if Gilmore and his campaign had not seemingly gone out of their way to indicate that it was, in fact, the New Hampshire company for which he worked:

In 2005, Combs's company filed a report with the State Corporation Commission listing Gilmore as vice chairman of the company. SCC records do not list Gilmore after that.

But Gilmore's forms for his Senate campaign incorrectly say he was on the New Hampshire company's board from December 2004 to December 2007. The Web site of the Virginia company still lists Gilmore as a member of its "team."

Gamonal said she did not know why Gilmore's name was on the Virginia company's Web site. In the campaign's statement, Gilmore says he served on the Virginia company's board as an unpaid adviser from May 2005 to June 2006. Gilmore also reported that Windmill International is a "veterans contract group."

Richard L. Manganello, founder and chief executive officer of the New Hampshire company, which describes itself as a contracting firm run by veterans, said neither he nor his business has had any ties to Gilmore or Combs's company, which is based at Combs's home in Rappahannock County.

While the New Hampshire group is indeed a "veterans' contracting group", the Virginia company does not deal in veterans' issues.

So, to recap: Gilmore claimed to have worked for a veterans' contracting group, based in New Hampshire, from 2004 to 2007, on his campaign disclosure forms.

He is now admitting that none of those things were true.

Falsifying one's campaign disclosure forms is a relatively serious offense, and Gilmore may face a fine.

But more to the point: what exactly was the nature of Gilmore's relationship to Combs and Johnson, and Windmill International? What was so dangerous about that relationship that it was worth breaking federal law to conceal?

Gilmore was not named in the federal lawsuit, but as this story breaks, there will be many more questions as to how deep Gilmore's involvement with Windmill goes.

Cross-posted on Campaign Diaries

Whatever the make-up of the 111th Congress, no one will be able to say that Democrats didn't try everything in their power to reach a 60-seat majority. As of the spring of 2008, there already were eight highly competitive seats that no one would be surprised to see turn-over: With Virginia and New Mexico all but lost for Republicans (and Senator Ensign acknowledging just as much), the GOP is in grave danger in New Hampshire, Colorado, Alaska, Mississippi, Oregon and Minnesota. On the other hand, Republican attempts to go on the offensive have been disastrous, with only Louisiana looking competitive.

Mark Begich (D) opens a nine points lead over Ted Stevens (R) in Alaska Senate race 50% to 41%.  With leaners included, Begich's numbers jumps over 50% to 52% to 44% (Begich v. Stevens). The Approve/Disapprove number for Stevens is 50%/48% while for Begich 63%/33%.  Some pundits even reminded us that the numbers for other senate seats that turned Democrat in 2006 mirror the numbers for Republican Senate seats we are targeting this year. I guess and hope with all these good wind blowing at our back, 60 Senate seats is achievable this November 4.

We, Virginians, are very excited that John Warner(R)'s seat is basically in our bag (with many polls showing Mark Warner (D) leading Jim Gilmore (R) by 30% or more). However, with McCain v. Obama poll number so close, I would like to remind fellow Virginians and canvassers that early voting in Virginia starts September 19, 2008 and ends October 31, 2008.  Take your friends and family to vote early at the local county's election office.  

Road to 60 and a new Democratic President starts here in Virginia.

Every State. Every race. Right here.

This is number 18 in a planned series of 50 entries between now and November, looking at each of the 50 states in terms of every race on that state's ticket--Presidential, Gubernatorial, Senate, House, State legislatures--the whole Brunswick Stew.  Special attention paid to identifying and promoting the most important contests per state.

Virginia is arguably the best Democratic success story in the South since the years started beginning with a 2.  We won two elections for Governor; elected Jim Webb to the US Senate (Virginia’s first Democratic Senator since Chuck Robb); and reclaimed the State Senate for Team Democrat in spite of a Republican gerrymander.  And let’s hear it for Old Dominion!!!

Yep, so at this point the sheer mass of polling data is such that it is time for me to tiptoe back into the water. The fact that school has let out for the summer (though I am teaching summer school) helps out, as well.

So today, the Following the Polls series that I began back in 2006 makes its permanent return. It will start as a weekly series (Friday seems to be the logical day), and then it will become daily once we get past Labor Day.

And, week one of the series sees a big polling week, as there are 35 separate races that were polled this week. Head past the flip for all the numerical goodness.

Mark Warner, in the blowout sensation of the season, is now beating Jim Gilmore 60-33. No surprises there. It's our guaranteed Senate pickup.

The race for Virginia's 13 EV's has more drama:

Rasmussen. 6/12. Likely voters. MoE 4% (5/8 results)

That could be just float in the MoE, so bottom line is that this race is tied this month like it was last month. It just looks more delicious when our guy is ahead. Let's look at the internals:

The main movement here is among independents, and that's not a bad thing at all.

TPM Election Central has uplifting news for Democrats, and another dollop of grim electoral news for the GOP.

In a rather extraordinary admission, NRSC head John Ensign has already conceded two Republican-held Senate seats to the Democrats--John Warner's seat in Virginia, and Pete Domenici's seat in New Mexico.

The money quote, and some analysis, on the flip.

I know, I know...it's not likely, but a brother can dream can't he?

Following up on my post from yesterday and incorporating some of the suggestions/corrections from the comments made there, let's take a look at our best case scenario in the November Senate elections.

Right now, we're at 49 Ds, 49 Rs and 2 I's.  When the smoke clears on election night in November we'll be at 62 Ds, 37 Rs and 1 I.
Here's how it's going to happen....

Here’s how the Dems can win a filibuster-proof 60 seat majority in the U.S. Senate.  It’s not going to be easy, but it can happen.

Right now, there are 49 Republicans, 49 Democrats and 2 Independents (Sanders-VT & Lieberman-CT) who both caucus with the Dems.

In November of 2008, there will be 33 Senate seats up for election AND one special election - to replace the retired Trent Lott-MS.  For the Dems to achieve a 60 seat super-majority they will need to win 9 seats that are now held by a Republican.  Here are the 9 seats that are in reach:

Former Virginia Governor, Mark Warnerwas in Fredericksburg Thursday speaking to business and community leaders about his campaign for the U.S. Senate. Folks listened as he spoke of the need to invest in new energy sources, provide business solutions to our problems in health care and of how we need to rebuild the nation's infrastructure.

While many consider him a "shoe-in" to replace retiring Senator John Warner (no relation) he is running a dynamic campaign and taking little for granted.  Virginia voters need to be reminded of Mark's accomplishments as Governor including taking over a time of a $6 billion annual budget deficit and turning our Commonwealth into "The Best Managed State in the Nation" by Governing Magazine, and later the "Best State For Business" ranking by Forbes.

So with less than half a year to go, it’s time for another look at all the 2008 Senate races.  There are 35 seats up for election because of a scenario in Wyoming and Mississippi where both seats are up, due to the passing of Craig Thomas and the resignation of Trent Lott, respectively.  Now obviously, quite a few of the races are considered "safe" for the incumbent.  So I’ll rank these in terms of tiers.  The top tier will be the races where the party holding the seat has a real shot of switching.  The second tier are races that could become top tier races, but are not at this point.  Tier III are ones where a major event would need to happen for the seat to come into play.  And the safe seats?  Well, Mike Gravel has a better shot at winning the presidency than those incumbents have of losing their races.

Follow me below the fold for all the races.  This is meant to be a primer for both newcomers and political junkies alike, so some of the information may seem repetitive for you junkies out there.  Also see my previous March diary to see what things have changed since my last update.

It's been five LOOOONG months since I last posted a Senate '08 diary. Back then, Fidel Castro still ran Cuba (in name, at least) and Iowa was anyone's game to predict. Two weeks before my diary was posted, a loon held Clinton's Rochester, New Hampshire office hostage for several hours. And about the time my diary was posted, the hottest news on Campaign Trail '08 was Sex On the City (if you don't remember, it's okay...it was Rudy Giuliani's 497th scandal of 2007).

Anyway, much has changed, and the Senate '08 picture has seemingly gotten brighter and brighter for the Democrats. Retaining a Senate majority seems just about assured, and expanding it significantly looks likely. That's what a basket-case economy and unanimously disdained President will do for the opposition party. Good times.

My Senate roundup below the fold! . . .

The presidential primaries are heading towards a not so climactic conclusion and so the time has come to focus some attention on the congressional races. I haven't updated the  rankings since January and a lot has changed in the past 5 months, starting with the resolution of contested primaries in Oregon, Nebraska, North Carolina and probably Minnesota. Both parties have gone through final recruitment pushes, with the GOP playing a tragicomedic farce in New Jersey and suffering through one more round of failures in South Dakota and Iowa.

The full rankings are available here, on my blog at Campaign Diaries.

George W. Bush appears to desire the complete destruction of the Republican Party for the next forty years even more ardently than he wants to fund his war in Iraq. Or so I am lead to believe by a recent spate of incomprehensible policy decisions. He has given the Democratic Party an arsenal of tools to use against both John McCain, and nearly every Republican incumbent up for re-election in the Senate. It is July 4 in May!

Democrats in the Senate have been unable to pass a series of extremely popular and necessary programs due to stiff opposition from the Bush Administration and Senate Republican leadership. Instead of giving up, Democratic Leadership has attached the programs to the Supplemental Appropriations Bill which funds the War in Iraq. The President, who has suddenly discovered "fiscal responsibility," is threatening to veto the bill unless the offensive amendments are removed. His water carriers, Mitch McConnell (R-KY) and Chuck Grassley (R-IA) are working hard behind the scenes to insure that Republicans uphold the President's veto.

Senate Republicans who are up for re-election in November (or ever) face an unsettling dilemma.