Every State. Every race. Right here.

This is number 26 in a planned series of 50 entries between now and November, looking at each of the 50 states in terms of every race on that state's ticket--Presidential, Gubernatorial, Senate, House, State legislatures--the whole sixpack! Special attention paid to identifying and promoting the most important contests per state.

Today, put on your cheesehead hat, open a can of Milwaukee’s Best and prepare to visit some very friendly territory for Democrats.  Wisconsin, THIS IS YOUR 50-State Diary!!!

These are all states with filing deadlines in the first half of July

The numbers after each are a) Cook PVI and b) A rating of the district based on a model I created details here - basically a logistic model based on a lot of demographics; the number is the predicted probability of being Republican, based solely on the demographics (details here.  I also have a model that includes Cook PVI, but, well....I give you the Cook number too.

WI has 8 congressional districts. 5 Democrats and 3 Republicans
LA has 7  congressional districts. 2 Democrats and 5 Republicans
MN has 8 congressional districts. 5 Democrats and 3 Republicans

Back on Feb. 22, returning from his first trip to Iraq, Wisconsin 1st District Republican Congressman Paul Ryan told the Milwaukee Journal/Sentinal's Craig Gilbert

"it is our last chance to get this right" before going to "Plan B" and starting to withdraw troops.

"This whole thing is a big gamble, but it's probably the best gamble to take before throwing in the towel... "I personally give this three to six months to find out."...

"In six months, if it's getting worse, then I don't think the plan will succeed, and we'll start talking seriously about pulling back our forces."

Wednesday will be six months. Call, or even better, drop by his offices, and call in the bet.

Month 3 of Tracking the Top 50 House Pick up Chances

With the Presidential race gearing up at a its fastest pace ever, it is extremely important to remember that 2008 is still a chance to strength our majority in the House and as importantly, punish the Republicans who stood with Bush every step of the way until it was politically inconvenient. So this is Month Three.

On 8/28/06 an article ran about me in the Racine Journal Times.  I blogged about the response I got Here.  I was so infuriated that I sent an op-ed into the paper.  It got published!  The whole thing none the less. I blogged with my un-edited response earlier as well. They did a nice job editing it with out changing the content!

After reading the comments on this post, I came to a conclusion.  I think my op-ed actually got through to a couple of neo-cons.  From my sources in Racine I apparently got some good printed responses as well.  There are still a couple of looney toons who didn't even read the article.  The ones who STILL said deal with it you signed a contract.  EYEROLL  I can't say I didn't expect that though.

Op-Ed

 

On Tuesday, there was an unheralded 5-way Democratic primary for the 1st Congressional District of Wisconsin.  Bush got 51% and 53% in the district, so it's an area where we should at least be running a serious candidate.  The results of the primary, however, represented a truly spectacular failure, which is no doubt repeated (if in a less bizarre way) in many districts across the country:

Thomas, Jeff    Dem    7,278    25.35%
    Hebert, Mike    Dem    6,324    22.02%
    Santa Cruz Bradley, Ruth    Dem    5,435    18.93%
    Herr, Steven    Dem    5,302    18.47%
    Hall, Don    Dem    4,374    15.23%

So what's the problem?  Read on...

First things first.  Colorado, Indiana, Nevada, North Carolina, Iowa, New Mexico, West Virginia, Kansas, Connecticut, Illinois, Missouri, North Dakota, South Dakota, Montana, Idaho, Utah and Wyoming.

And before we take the jump, I just wanted to remind you again that you can contribute to candidates on this project by hitting this ActBlue page


And, because I get grief about not pimping my other series, you can go here and join the BASICS series already in progress.

JUMP!

Steven Herr was endorsed by Milwaukee's leading newspaper, the Journal-Sentinel:

It's probably a testament to Rep. Paul Ryan's strength in the 1st Congressional District that no Democrat elected official or major player opted to challenge the Republican congressman. But voters will still be able to make a solid choice in the Democratic primary when they go to the polls on Tuesday: Five concerned citizens took up the challenge dropped by their party leaders and are vying for the Democratic nomination to face Ryan in the November general election.

Of those five, and in a very close call, Kenosha businessman Steven Herr, 49, offers voters a good mix of real-world experience and support for Democratic values and positions. He supports a national health care system; a 24-month timeline for withdrawal from Iraq; higher vehicle fuel efficiency standards and public financing of elections. Herr runs a road-salt business in Kenosha and has an apartment there but lives weekends on his family's hobby farm in Brodhead. He told us he would move into the district on a permanent basis if elected.

The 5-way Democratic primary in Wisconsin's 1st CD is coming September 12th, and there are two forums coming up, the first of which is tonight in Greendale:

Thursday September 7th, 7:00-8:30 PM
Greendale High School Multi-purpose room
6801 Southway, Greendale

Saturday September 9th, 11:00 AM-12:30 PM
WGTD BioCatt building
3520 30th Avenue, Kenosha
(11:00-11:45 broadcast, 11:45-12:30 live audience only)

For more information about the candidates, Steven Herr has information on himself and links to the other candidates' websites.

Steve Herr will also be available to talk to anyone with questions on the phone Sunday from 11 AM to 9 PM and Monday from 8 AM to 9 PM.  The phone number is 262-658-1958.

In Wisconsin's 1st District, in the southeast part of the state, there is a 5-way Democratic primary on September 12th.  Everyone (except for those 5) is intimidated by Bush rubberstamper Paul Ryan's warchest, and there is no Party anointed candidate, so this primary race is being run on ideas and old fashioned shoe leather.  The Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel profiles the race:

All of the five candidates say they believe they have the ability to unseat the four-term Wisconsin Republican.

Certainly none of them has even close to the kind of money that Ryan has in his coffers, an amount approaching $2 million. Nor do they have the name recognition - all are first-time candidates except Jeffrey Thomas, who has made six unsuccessful runs for the job.

More on the candidates below the fold...

Steven Herr, Democratic candidate for Congress in Wisconsin's 1st CD issued a press release in response to Republican rubberstamper Paul Ryan's repetition of Bush talking points on Iraq.  Herr favors a common sense approach to governing, and actually finding solutions to the problems facing our country.  That attitude is evident from this excerpt from the release:

"As any teacher would tell you, unless you set a deadline for an assignment, the task will never get done. The assignment for the Iraqis is to develop a government that can be supported by all, and to get their own forces ready to maintain order."

The full release and more on Steve Herr is below the fold...

Hey, Northern California!  Do you feel like political spectators, since we have only one marginally competitive Congressional District (CA-11) in the area?  Now is your chance to get involved!  You can make a difference for a candidate in a swing district, and all you have to do is eat barbecued hamburgers, spend an afternoon in a nice park with other Kossacks, and chat with a candidate for Congress.  Can you manage that?

The candidate is Steven Herr, who is running in the 1st District of Wisconsin, where Bush got 51% in 2000.  He introduced himself to the netroots in a diary here.  His roots are in California, so he's passing through on a fundraising swing.  Let's help out Steve and take back Congress!

When and Where:
Berkeley, Saturday March 25, 12-4 PM
Rocklin (near Sacramento), Sunday March 26, 2-6 PM

How Much: $25 per person (damn cheap, and that includes food and drink)

Sign up now - space is limited for both events!  If you have questions, contact me at capoljunkie -at- hotmail.com .  Thank you!

Hi.  My name is Steve Herr, I am a Democrat, and I am the next congressman from
Wisconsin's 1st Congressional District.  No, really.  I know people running for Congress are a dime a dozen around these parts, but let me tell you a little about who I am and the district I'm running in.

The December 31st deadline is upon us, and, if you are sitting on a little extra cash, maybe got a nice year-end bonus, I'd like to suggest some places to drop it.

"It's not often that I find myself taking the moderate position," says Joshua Grossman,  SF Bay Area-based political demographer and founder of the congressional vote tracking website ProgressivePunch.org..."but  when it  comes  to House targeting , you can call me a raging moderate."

Grossman, a committed and pragmatic progressive, says this with a twinkle in his eye...and then launches into the heart of his analysis.  "The DCCC has traditionally done targeting in such a narrowly focused manner, targeting and fully funding so few races, that the Democrats would have to draw an inside straight to take back the House...pretty much taking every seat they contest.  On the other hand, and in part in response to this narrow point of view,  the netroots has tended to choose races as if resources and political capital were in endless supply.  Too often, there's been heartbreak at the end of the rainbow for the netroots...dollars, sweat and tears have run up against races where, truth be told, we didn't really have a chance.  There's a middle path."

Joshua's middle path comes out of his background as a political demographer  and consultant.  His website, Progressive Punch.org is a well-known online resource for evaluating congressional voting records using a progressive yardstick. At the core of Joshua's analysis is this precept: the first factor to look at when we consider the pool of races to consider for targeting is the districts themselves...

Over at the Barry Welsh campaign we've been looking into just how much of a lackey our Rep, RSC head Mike Pence is to Tom Delay, and we've found this extraordinary piece of research at the Public Campaign Action Fund website.  They have posted an interactive list of all House Representatives and created a "DeLay Ranking" for each, combining money given from ARMPAC/DeLay campaign, money funneled back to the Delay Legal Defense Fund, and how closely the Rep has voted with DeLay. It is interactive in that you can sort the list by category, seeing who, for example, has given the most to the legal defense fund, etc.  

Turns out Mike Pence is tied for 14th in "DeLapdog  err, DeLay Rankings".  Always seemed like he represents East Texas better than East Indiana.

I've listed the Top 25 below the fold. But every member of the House is reported at the main site.  Go and find your Rep and see how deep they are in.  I don't know if this has been blogged here before (I couldn't find it in a search), but even if it has, its good enough for a refresher. Kudos to the Public Campaign Action Fund.