I don’t need to restate how horrifying it is to have a uniquely awful person assuming the presidency. People who aren’t white Christian males are terrified, and it was soul-crushing to have a strong, intelligent, highly qualified woman defeated by an incompetent, ignorant, unprepared, racist, xenophobic, misogynist narcissist and pathological liar who received less votes. It will be a horrid four years for us and for the people and issues we care about. Here’s the thing, though: the election of 2016 was toxic for all, as disaster would inevitably fall upon whoever won.
Imagine, if you will (sorry if this makes you cry), if Hillary Clinton won the electoral college:
- She assumes the presidency to great fanfare and is a role model showing what women can achieve
- She preserves the Obama legacy for four years by maintaining the status quo
- Mitch McConnell requires that any Supreme Court nominee be able to clear a Republican filibuster, requiring the support of at least 12 Republican senators. Only a compromise candidate is able to clear that hurdle, or the position just remains vacant
- Like under Obama, Republicans wouldn’t save their own grandmother from the Ravenous Bugblatter Beast of Traal if Hillary Clinton thought it was a good idea. Nothing is accomplished legislatively and once again our federal government struggles to even keep the lights on.
- Without major accomplishments, Democratic vote is depressed while Republicans are angry and energized in 2018. Republicans once again sweep midterm elections at the state and federal levels.
- With little to run on besides not going backward, Hillary Clinton has a difficult time running for re-election after 12 years of Democratic rule, and we end up with President Cruz or whichever other right-wing tea partier was angry enough to win the Republican nomination. Asymmetric voter energy again means that Republicans win up and down the ballot.
- The new Republican president and congress begin trying to dismantle the Obama legacy.
- Republicans use their governorships and state legislative control won in 2018/2020 to control redistricting and cement their majorities in the House and state legislatures for another 10 years.
Now, here is what is coming under a Trump administration:
- Protections for minorities, workers, and the environment are gutted
Republicans are then screwed because nobody actually likes their policies:
- They can defund the Affordable Care act and piss off 22 million people who rely on it to have health insurance or they can leave it in place and piss off their base.
- They will pass tax cuts for the rich and not pay for any of it, but Trump voters don’t give a rat’s a** about tax cuts for the rich.
- There is no constituency in favor of spending cuts because those directly impacted are much more likely to vote on that, and Trump wants to drastically increase spending. This is something Republicans are likely to fight internally over and accomplish little, much like when they had complete control from 2003-2007.
- Trump will do something with regard to immigration, but he can’t live up to his grandiose promises and anything he does will only galvanize Hispanics against him.
- The “wall”, if it passes, will be an expensive boondoggle paid for by American taxpayers.
- Manufacturing jobs won’t come back from China no matter what.
- The economy won’t grow any faster than it is now, may enter a cyclical recession, or may enter a recession as a response to upheaval from protectionist policies.
- Democrats will be highly energized in 2018 and 2020 while Trump supporters see impossible promises broken, and Democrats do well in both elections with a strong chance to win back the presidency in 2020.
- Democrats will control more of the redistricting process after 2020 so they will be well positioned in state legislative and House districts for the next decade.
- Donald Trump will no longer be an aberration — he will be the Republican Party. He will do for it what Pete Wilson did for Republicans in California: energize a powerful and growing Hispanic population who will vote Democratic for the next generation.
It is very difficult for one party to sustain power in the presidency for more than 8 years, much less 12 years. The next four years will be very painful, Hillary Clinton did not deserve this, the vulnerable among us do not deserve this, and Trump will be a uniquely destructive force, but having Republicans in complete control will expose their hypocrisy and the unpopularity of their ideas for all to see. Having our loss be complete and happen now, though, will only make us stronger for the next decade than we could possibly have been otherwise.
